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library(latex2exp)


MIN_VALID_YEAR <- 6

variable_of_interest<- "Bt/K Lutjanus malabaricus"
x_labeller<- scales::percent
## [1] 594
## [1] 174

Intro

###Simplified model:

Things we don’t know:

Things we know:

Approach:

Benefits: * No need for population reconstruction * Clear uncertainty propagation * Clear value of information Cost: * Model needs to be fast

Results * Ran the model for about 50,000 times * Accepted about 0.5% of them * This is their story….

Weighing evidence

## [1] 266

First basic result:

ADD MORE:

  1. I know that both boat populations are still at it
  2. I know that small boats are more numerous
  3. I know that malabaricus SPR has dropped dramatically?

Policy

We don’t want just to assess, we want to know policy effects:

Works as before but: * apply same policy to all accepted runs

Positive: * study the average effect * understanding the uncertainty Negative: * to make them comparable, speak only in relative terms

Depletion policy